我国纺织业集聚分布格局及其影响因素的空间面板数据分析

Empirical Study on the Distribution Pattern and Influencing Factors of Textile Industry Agglomeration:Based on Spatial Panel Data Models

在我国,关于区域产业集聚的理论研究进展迅速,但基于空间计量经济模型的实证研究仍需完善。本文采用中国2004-2007省际面板数据,验证纺织业集聚的空间依赖性存在,并分别对空间滞后模型和空间误差模型进行估计,得出以下结论:近些年纺织业集聚的省际分布格局主要呈现"东高西低"的两极化特征,总体变化不大;根据全局Moran I指数和LISA集聚图,纺织业集聚存在空间维度的依赖性和异质性,东部沿海纺织业的扩散作用没有充分发挥,区域发展很不平衡;原料供给量、平均规模水平、交通运输条件等因素都对纺织业集聚产生不同程度的正向影响,而地方保护阻碍产业跨区迁移与形成集聚;与理论假设不同,低廉的劳动力成本对纺织业集聚没有产生明显的促进作用,主要是受到基础设施状况和运输条件的限制;制定相关政策的同时,注意从以上这些要素入手,还必须充分考虑空间作用机制对纺织业省域集聚的差异化作用。

In China, the theoretical studies on the regional industry agglomeration are progressing rapidly, but the empirical studies have been not enough presently. Based on the inter-provincial panel data, the spatial autoeorrelation was verified among the provincial textile industry agglomeration, and the spatial lag model and the spatial error model were both estimated. According to the estimation results, conclusions were reached as follows： In recent years the level of provincial textile industry ag- glomeration is high in the east and low in the west, without much change, and based on Global Moran＇s I and LISA, there are spatial autocorrelation and heterogeneity among the provincial textile industry agglomeration, the diffusing effect of the agglomeration in eastern coastal areas hasn＇t been fulfilled, which leads to unbalanced development; supply of raw materials, average size of textile enterprises, transportation condition and other factors produce a positive effect on the textile industry agglomeration, which is contrary to local protection. Differently from theoretical assumptions, because of the poor infrastructure and transport conditions in western areas, the advantage of low labor cost dosen＇t play a significant role in promoting the textile industry agglomeration. In the process of policy formulation, we should start from the factors above, and fully consider the different effects from spatial mechanism on the provincial textile industry agglomeration.