人民币升值能改善日美与中国的贸易状况吗?——基于汇率经过效应的研究

Can Appreciation of RMB Improve Sino-Japan and Sino-U.S.Trade Status? A Study Based on Pass-Through Effect of Exchange Rate

有学者提出,被低估的人民币是中国贸易盈余和全球贸易不平衡的主要因素,因此,人民币升值有助于改善中西方的贸易状况。显然,这种观点的内在逻辑是:人民币升值将提高中国出口商品的价格,同时降低外国进口商品和服务的价格,即人民币升值存在较大的汇率经过效应(pass-though effect)。通过对人民币汇率经过效应的研究,发现人民币升值不能改善美国与中国的贸易状况,但能改善日本与中国的贸易状况;其差别的原因就在于贸易定价的不同。

Some scholars argue that the undervalued RMB is the key factor which results in China＇s trade surplus and global trade imbalance;therefore,the appreciation of RMB can improve trade status between China and the West.Obviously,the logics inside this argument are that the appreciation of RMB will increase the export prices from China,and reduce the relative prices of foreign goods and service,that is to say the pass-through effect of the appreciation RMB is great.Through the study of the pass-through effect of RMB,this paper reveals that the appreciation of RMB cannot improve U.S.-China trade status,but can improve Japan-China trade status;the reason for this difference lies in the different pricing in trade.