气候变暖对我国棉铃虫适生分布区的模拟预测

Simulation and prediction of potential distribution of Helicoverpa armigera in China under global warming

利用DYMEX软件构建生物气候模型并通过ArcGIS进行图形处理,对棉铃虫在我国当前和气温升高后的潜在适生分布区进行了模拟预测。模拟结果表明,棉铃虫的高度适生区分布在河南中南部、安徽和湖北北部、江西和福建南部、湖南、广西、广东等华北、华南部分地区,以及陕甘交界处天水地区、川藏交界处巴塘地区等;中度适生区在黄河和长江流域的大部分省份;低度适生区主要分布在东北三省、新疆、西藏、青海地区。模拟21世纪末气温升高3℃预测,棉铃虫中度适生区北界由营口、北京、石家庄、太原、延安、兰州、巴塘一线北移至沈阳、呼和浩特、酒泉、格尔木、拉萨一线,纬度北移约3°,海拔升高300~500 m;新疆大面积地区由低度适生区成为中度适生区。气候变暖使棉铃虫当前的少部分高度适生区（天水、巴塘等）面积扩大,但也使部分分布区（华北地区、华南地区、中国台湾、香港和海南地区等）收缩。最后,结合棉铃虫生物学特性对预测结果进行了讨论。

By using DYMEX 3.0 program to construct a bioclimatic model and using ArcGIS to treat graphs,this paper simulated and predicted the potential areas fitting for Helicoverpa armigrea survival in China under present climatic and future global warming scenarios.Under present climatic scenario,the habitats highly fitting for H.armigrea survival in China would be located in central and south Henan,north Anhui and Hubei,south Jiangxi and Fujian,Hunan,Guangxi,Guangdong,juncture of Shanxi and Gansu（Tianshui）,and juncture of Sichuan and Tibet（Batang）,moderately fitting habitats would be the most areas along the Yellow and Yangtze rivers,and low fitting habitats would be mainly in the three provinces of Northeast China,and Xinjiang,Tibet,and Qinghai.Under future global warming scenario（a 3 ℃ increase of air temperature by the end of this century）, the northern border of moderately fitting habitats would be shifted from a line of Yingkou,Beijing,Shijiazhuang,Taiyuan,Yan＇an,Lanzhou,and Batang to a line of Shenyang,Hohhot,Jiuquan,Gomud and Lhasa,with the latitude shifted northward 3° and the elevation increased by 300-500 m,the current low fitting habitats in large areas of Xinjiang would become moderately fitting habitats,some highly fitting habitats such as Tianshui and Batang would expand,and some habitats in Northern and Southern China,Taiwan,Hong Kong,and Hainan would shrink.A discussion on the prediction results was made,based on the biological characteristics of H.armigrea.