论近期日元升值的成因与影响及走势预测

Discussion on the Reason,Influence and Development Trend of Japanese Yen's Recent Appreciation

2007年以来日元汇率出现大幅上升,其主因是金融危机前累积的经常项目顺差及危机后美国经济衰退和日美利差缩小带来的短期资本大量流入,日本政府无力干预汇市则是危机后日元升值得以持续的条件,中国增持日本国债并非升值主因。在金融危机和日本财政、货币政策均受制约的背景下,日元升值可能给日本出口和宏观经济带来比20世纪80年代更为严重的负面影响。鉴于日本经济基本面走势和财务省加大汇市干预力度及大地震的影响,日元升值并不会持续太长时间。

the Japanese Yen took on a trend of large appreciation after 2007,and the main reasons are supposed to be the current account surplus before the financial crisis and the short-term capital＇s inflow resulted by the reduce of Japan-US interest rate＇s difference after the crisis.Japanese government＇s failure in intervening the foreign exchange market is the supportive factors for Yen＇s appreciation after the crisis,while China＇s purchase on the Japanese debt is not the main reason.Under the background of the financial crisis and the malfunction of financial and currency policy,the appreciation would bring a more negative influence on Japan＇s economics rather than in 1980s.In the light of Japan＇s recent economics situation and the government＇s endeavor of foreign exchange intervention,and the negative influence brought by the earthquake,it is supposed that Yen＇s appreciation will not last for a long period.