后危机时代贸易摩擦特征及趋势--基于战略性大宗商品视角

Characteristics and Trends of Trade Friction in Post-crisis Era——Perspective on Strategic Commodity

传统经济学理论认为贸易保护是损人不利己的,引发的贸易战争更有可能把世界经济拖入衰退,而近段时间以美国和欧盟为首的西方国家对我国展开了频繁的反倾销、反垄断调查,从早先的纺织品到最近的轮胎、钢管、钢绞线、紫铜管,它们具有一个共同的特点,即:都是战略性大宗商品的制成品。文章从战略性大宗商品角度对此进行分析,认为西方国家在贸易保护的同时,利用其控制战略性大宗商品定价权推高基础资源价格,从而削弱出口国产业竞争力,来保护国内产业及弥补贸易保护带来的福利损失,并通过对棉花价格的实证研究证明这一观点。在此基础上,进一步分析近阶段钢管、钢绞线、紫铜管贸易争端缘由及趋势。

Abstract：Traditional economic theory suggests that trade protection is a dog in the manger, and lead to trade war is more likely to make the world into recession.Recently, the United States and the European Union launched a frequent anti-dumping, anti-monopoly investigation into Chinese exports. From the earlier textiles to the nearest tire, steel, steel wire, copper. They have a common characteristic： they are strategic commodity products.From the point of strategic commodities, the article analyze that western countries using the capability to control and push the price of strategic commodities, weakening the global competitiveness of exporting countries＇ industries, protectingtheir domestic industries and make up the loss of benefits of trade protection. Through the case of empirical studies on anti-dumping investigation into Chinese cotton textiles exports prove this view.On this basis, this article give further analysis on the trends of these trade （steel pipe, steel wire, copper origins ） frictions.