2010年上海世博会客流影响因素的实证分析

The Empirical Analysis of Visitor Flow on Shanghai Expo 2010

文章针对世博会运营期间184天的单日入园客流数据,运用多元回归计量分析方法,系统地探讨了单日客流的内、外生影响因素。研究结果发现,上海世博会运营期间的周末效应和长假效应明显,温度变化是影响客流波动的重要负面因素,相对恶劣天气对客流的影响在原始数据中并不显著,但在处理后的数据中显著为负。作为世博会组织程度代理变量之一的团队入园人数对单日客流具有明显的正面影响,指定日的价格提升具有显著的负面影响,入园客流具有滞后的正面影响,而团队入园客流则有显著的滞后负面影响。

This essay is aiming at the daily visitor data during the 184 days of Expo. It uses multiple regression analysis to study the endogenous and exogenous factors of visitor flow in a single day systematically. The results show that the weekend effect and the holiday effect is statistically significant, but the change of temperature is an important negative factor to the fluctuation of visitor flow. The influence of relative bad weather on visitor flow is not very significant in original data, however, it is significantly negative when the original data is processed. As a proxy variable of the organizing degree of Expo, the number of tours has a significantly positive impact on the daily flow, although increasing price on the Designated Date is negative to it. We also find that the visitor flow has a lagged positive impact, while the visitor flow of tours has a lag of negative impact.