摘要
在软件项目的开发和管理过程中存在很多的不确定性，针对软件项目的复杂性和不确定性，该文在模糊理论的基础上，提出了一种基于模糊理论的软件项目风险评估模型。该模型可以评估常用于衡量风险程度的风险当量以外，还可以评估多柙风险对某种风险后果的组合影响，以及单个风险对整体后果的综合影响。通过实践证明该模型可以减少专家评估的不确定性，有效地预测潜在的风险，为降低风险发生的概率和提高软件项目的成功提供了行之有效的方法。
Many uncertainties always exist in the development and management process of software project, To handle with the complexi- ty and uncertainW of software project, the paper proposes a software project risk assessment model based on Fuzzy theory. Using che model, we can assess the consequences and the loss of the risk, besides, it can measure a combination of impact of a certain risk from a varieW of risk and the combined effects of the overall consequences from individual risk. Practice proves that the model can predict risks and identify the sources of risk. In a word, it provides a way to effectively reduce the risk probability and increase the rate of the success of software development.
作者
裴育
PEI Yu （School of Management, China Mining University, Xuzhou 221008, China）
出处
《电脑知识与技术》
2011年第6期3871-3873,共3页
Computer Knowledge and Technology
关键词
软件项目
风险管理
风险评估
模糊理论
software project
risk management
risk assessment
fuzzy theory
