论当前中东剧变的国内因素及其国际影响

Analysis on the Internal Elements in the Unrest of Middle East and the Influence on International Politics

从2010年12月17日突尼斯失业青年布瓦吉吉自焚开始,一场席卷突尼斯全国的政治变革大潮迅速蔓延至中东几乎所有阿拉伯国家。这一突如其来的变化,预示着更为复杂的政治变革进程已经开始。从目前情况来看,各国表面上貌似群龙无首、组织松散的街头抗议,实质都是围绕着"变革"这一主题展开,大量失业青年成为这一"变革"的主要参与力量,而网络新媒体则扮演了推波助澜的角色。变革、青年和网络是中东各国目前政治剧变的三个关键因素,进一步认清三者的互动关系及其作用和影响,不仅可以更好地了解中东当前的政治发展进程,也对维护我国的国家安全和社会稳定,有着十分重要的现实意义。

On December 17, 2010, Mohamed Bouazizi, a Tunisian unemployed youth, set himself on fire. From then on, a wave of political reform over Tunisia began quickly spread to the Middle East, almost all of the Arab and Islamic countries are involved. This sudden sharply change indicates that the more complex political and social change process has already begun in all over the Arab world. From the current situation, despite the rudderless, short of guideline and loosely organized, the street protests in fact are promoted by the theme-- ＂Change＂. A lot of unemployed young people become the main force of the ＂Change＂ and the new media, such as network, twitter, facebook, play important role in the revolt. So far, Change, Youth and Network are the three key internal elements in the Middle East political upheaval. To further realize the interaction among the three elements and their roles and influences in the upheaval, not only can better understand the current political development process in Middle East, but also has very important practical significance in maintenance our national security and social stability.