基于投入产出法的中国行业水资源消耗分析

Analysis of Water Consumption of China's Industries Based on the Input-Output Method

基于投入产出分析方法,选取2007年相关数据进行整理分析,比较我国第一、二产业中各行业水资源的直接消耗、完全消耗和间接消耗,研究我国各行业间水资源消耗的间接拉动。分析结果显示:①农业、基础工业、轻工业、高科技产业、其他制造业直接用水系数为736.66m3/万元、21.69m3/万元、9.20m3/万元、0.84m3/万元和0.48m3/万元,当考虑产业供应链(supply-chain)网络,各个行业完全用水系数分别达到903.53m3/万元、87.77m3/万元、307.50m3/万元、53.47m3/万元和186.38m3/万元;②农业和基础工业是各行业完全用水的主要来源,占各行业完全用水量的95%以上,高科技工业和其他制造业对其他行业水资源消耗的间接拉动比较大,用水乘数分别为63.42和392.01,由于行业所处的产业链位置不同,从产业链上游到下游,间接拉动的行业组成由单一化趋向多样化;③在建设节水型经济结构过程中,由于行业间水资源消耗的关联性,需要考虑行业用水的间接拉动问题,降低农业生产比例,会减少直接用水系数,但从投入产出角度看很多行业都是依靠农业的投入,无论是本地生产还是区外调入,整个经济系统的水资源消耗还是不可避免。减少消费端的物质消费是减少资源消耗的最终途径,仅仅考虑调整产业结构只是将资源消耗大的行业进行了区位上的转移。

In the context of water shortage that often appears in China,the aim of this study was to study the behavior of the productive sectors of China＇s economy as direct and indirect consumers of water.To that end,we employed the input-output analysis method.On the basis of the input-output table of 2007 in China,we calculated the quantity of water consumption and relevant water input coefficients.After that,we compared total water consumption and direct water consumption of productive sectors and obtained the components of indirect water consumption of representative sectors whose water consumption multipliers are higher.Main results are as follows：1） direct water consumption coefficients for the sectors of agriculture,basic industry,light industry,high-technology industry,and other manufacturing industry are 736.66,21.69,9.20,0.84,and 0.48 m3/10000 RMB,respectively,whereas their total water input coefficients reach 903.53,87.77,307.50,53.47,and 186.38 m3/10000 RMB,respectively,with the consideration of supply-chain.The discrepancy between the total water consumption and the direct water consumption of the light industry is high,while the discrepancy of the other manufacturing industry is low.The production values of the light industry and the basic industry are much higher than agriculture,but the total water consumption of the two sectors are still lower than agriculture.It is due to the discrepancy between the total water input coefficient of the two sectors and that of agriculture.2） Agriculture and the basic industry contribute more to the total water consumption,accounting for more than 95% of the total of water consumption of the five sectors.The light industry,high-technology industry,and other manufacturing industry have a larger effect on driving water consumption of other sectors indirectly,whose water consumption multipliers are up to 33.41,63.42,and 392.01,respectively.That is to say,the three sectors which are at the downstream end of the supply-chain obtain themselves water demand mainly from agriculture and the basic industry which are at the upstream end.There are different components of indirect water consumption among different productive sectors.It is due to their different positions in the supply-chain.From the upstream to the downstream in the supply-chain,the level of indirect-driving water consumption of productive sectors is from ＂weak＂ to ＂strong＂,and the indirect water consumption component of productive sectors is from simplification to diversification.3） On the process of water-conservation economic structure establishment,indirect water consumption of productive sectors should be considered.The direct water consumption coefficient for agriculture can be decreased with its production reduced.However,in the view of the input-output perspective,the majority of this sector＇s direct water consumption is produced in obtaining products that supply other sectors.If the water consumption coefficients of other sectors do not decrease,it is inevitable that water consumption of the entire economic system will still increase.Industrial adjustment just relocates high direct water consumption sectors,but it is not the essential way to reduce the total water consumption.