辽宁沿海经济带水资源-社会经济可持续发展研究

A Study on Sustainable Development of Water Resources and Social Economy in Liaoning Coastal Economic Belt

水资源是社会经济发展的重要物质基础,辽宁沿海经济带水资源短缺已成为制约其社会经济可持续发展的重要因素。本文在分析辽宁沿海经济带水资源-社会经济发展现状的基础上,从水资源、社会、经济三方面综合分析选取24项评价指标,合理构建辽宁沿海经济带水资源-社会经济可持续发展评价指标体系,采用经济带内6个沿海地区近年的统计数据,运用可变模糊识别模型逐层评价辽宁沿海经济带水资源-社会经济可持续发展水平,结果表明:丹东、大连为中等偏高等水平;葫芦岛、营口和锦州为中等偏低等水平;盘锦为低等偏中等水平,经济带整体处于中等偏低等水平。最后,系统分析了经济带沿海各地区水资源系统、社会系统、经济系统、支撑力、压力、承载力、和谐性变化趋势,并分别指出各地区存在的主要问题。

Water resources are the key factor to the development of society,economic growth,the improvement of living standard of people,and the improvement of the environment.The shortage of water resources has become one of the important factors hampering the sustainable development of social economy in Liaoning coastal economic belt,which is one of areas falling severely short of water resources in the region.The contradictions between water supply and demand are becoming increasingly significant.In addition,the study would be beneficial in the formulation of strategy for the old industrial base in northeastern China.In this paper,the current situations of sustainable development of water resources and social economy in Liaoning coastal economic belt were analyzed.Based on special conditions of water resources and social and economy in Liaoning coastal economic belt,an assessment index system involving 24 indices for sustainable development of water resources and social economy was established.These indicators depict three major aspects including water resources,society,and economy.The assessment index grades were calculated.The Analytic Hierarchy Process （AHP） method was used to determine the weight of each assessment index.Data of cities in Liaoning coastal economic belt were used.As a result of the complexity and uncertainty of the water resources system,the variable fuzzy recognition model was chosen to evaluate the assessment index system quantitatively for each layer.The average value of the past four years was taken as the current situation of sustainable development of water resources and social economy in Liaoning coastal economic belt.Results show that the levels of the sustainable development of water resources,society,and economy for Dandong and Dalian were slightly higher than the moderate level.Those of Huludao,Yingkou,and Jinzhou were low to intermediate.Panjin lay in a low grade.The whole study area exhibited a low to an intermediate level.The evaluating results seem to be reasonable.