基于国际分工角度的中国贸易碳转移估算

Assessment of Carbon Transfer Embodied Within the Trade between China and Other Regions Based On International Specialization

国际贸易中的碳排放转移问题正在日益受到人们关注,中国在全球化经济中的分工角色对于碳转移有着深刻的影响。本文在多区域投入产出模型计算产业完全碳排放强度的研究基础上,采用2007年中国对外进出口贸易数据,分析基于国际分工背景下的中国贸易隐含二氧化碳空间转移路径,结果显示:国际产业分工形成以中国为中转站的两条碳转移路径,一条是中国从哈萨克斯坦、中东国家、澳大利亚、巴西、俄罗斯联邦、印度(Ⅲ类)输入能源和金属类高碳产业产品,制成中、低碳类的工业制成品输出到世界各国,主要是欧美国家(Ⅰ类);另一条是中国从东盟、韩国、亚洲其他未定义地区及日本(Ⅱ类)输入中、低碳产品的半成品或零部件,组装成中、低碳类的工业制成品后再输出世界各国,主要也是欧美国家。在考虑了国际产业分工背景下用于出口的进口隐含二氧化碳后,2007年各类国家和地区向中国净转移贸易隐含二氧化碳为:Ⅰ类国家181.51MtCO2、Ⅱ类国家13.74MtCO2、Ⅲ类国家5.82MtCO2。在考虑了国际分工后,中国进口的大部分产品不是用于最终消费而是为了生产,而生产产品中有相当大的部分是用于出口,在总体上中国是在替发达国家排放二氧化碳。

The issue of carbon emissions transfer embodied within international trade is attracting increasing attention.The characteristic of China in the globalized economy has a great influence on carbon transfer.By calculating total industrial carbon emission intensity using the Multi-Regional Input-Output model （MRIO）,the authors used statistical data of China＇s import and export trade in 2007 to analyze the special transfer route of embodied carbon dioxide in China＇s international trade within the context of international specialization and cooperation.It is concluded that two transfer routes of carbon emission,with China being an intermediate station,have been established as a consequence of international industrial specialization.One is that China imports energy,metal and other high carbon level products from Kazakhstan,Mideast,Australia,Brazil,Russia,and India （Type Ⅲ）,produces low or middle carbon level final consumer goods based on these imported products,and exports them to other parts of the world,especially European countries and North America （TypeⅠ）.The other route is that China imports middle or low carbon level semi-manufactured products or components from Japan,South Korea,ASEAN,and other parts of Asia （Type Ⅱ）,assembles into middle or low carbon level industrial products,and then exports them to other countries,with European countries and North America being the most significant destination.After computing the carbon embodied in import and export products,carbon dioxide transferred from countries and regions to China are as follows：Type Ⅰcountry：181.51 MtCO2;Type Ⅱcountry：13.74 MtCO2;and Type Ⅲ country：5.82 MtCO2.Taking into account international division of labor,most of imports of China are not used for final consumption but for production.A large part of imports is for export,and in general,China is in the emissions of carbon dioxide for developed countries.Carbon tariff is not the best solution to the problem of transferring the emissions of carbon dioxide in trade,which is unfair to China and may cause a trade war,even making a tremendous impact on the world economy.Developed countries have a greater consumption responsibility for climate warming;they should fund developing countries and transfer technology to them.Facing carbon tariffs,our government and enterprises should investigate the influence and its extent to our economy and consequently to every aspect of our society.We need to take advantage of environmental diplomacy and support the domestic low carbon economy industry,and improve the technical level,so that we can reduce the impact of carbon tariff on China＇s economy in the future.