中国省际能耗强度的影响因素及其空间关联性研究

Impact Factors and Spatial Correlation of China's Provincial Energy Intensity

过去文献对于中国能耗强度的探讨大都基于宏观角度,缺乏对中国地区能耗强度地区差异和空间关联性的分析。本文首先利用空间统计学方法研究了中国地区能耗强度的分布,结果显示中国各地区能耗强度具有明显的空间相关性,且呈现东、西部分块集聚的特征;其次,利用空间面板计量方法对中国30个省级区域能耗强度的影响因素进行估计,发现交通基础设施、市场化程度和科技投入对能耗强度有显著的负向影响,重工业比重和能源丰裕程度对能耗强度有显著的正向影响,而对外贸易和外商直接投资的回归系数不显著;最后,对中国地区能耗强度的空间溢出和收敛性进行了检验,结果表明东、西部间有明显的溢出效应,控制空间效应后仍呈β收敛趋势,且交通基础设施、市场化程度和科技投入的改善有利于地区能耗强度的收敛。并在理论和实证分析基础上提出了如何降低中国能耗强度的政策建议。

In the literature,discussion on issues of China＇s energy intensity rarely considers significant regional differences in energy intensity and its spatial linkage.Based on spatial statistical methods,i.e.,Globe Moran＇s I index,local Moran index,and Moran＇s scatter plot,this study investigated the distribution of China＇s regional energy intensity,and revealed that China＇s regional energy intensity is apparently correlated in space,and has a block clustering feature in eastern and western regions.Then,the author estimated the influential factors of China＇s 30-provincial energy intensity.Unlike the previous work associated with the influential factors of energy intensity which seems to fall short of examining the spatial correlation,this study used spatial panel data models.By regression analysis,it was found that transportation infrastructure,the level of marketization and scientific technological input have a significant negative impact on energy intensity.The scale of the heavy industry and level of energy abundance have a significant positive impact on energy intensity.The absolute value of the coefficient is great.This indicates that the allocation of China＇s energy supply and demand has not been optimized across the country.However,the regress coefficient of foreign trade and FDI is not significant,which indicates that with the development of foreign trade and FDI,manufacturing of some high-energy products are gradually shifting to China.This has offset the improvement of energy efficiency due to foreign trade and FDI to a great extent.Finally,the spillover and convergence of China＇s regional energy intensity have been tested in this paper.Results show that there is a significant cross-regional spillover effect of energy intensity between the eastern and western regions.Also,there is a β-convergence.After controlling the spatial effects,the improvement of infrastructure and level of marketization and scientific technological input is conducive to conditional convergence.This indicates that the provincial disparity of energy intensity is gradually shrinking.This trend has a close link with labor-intensive industries＇ shift from eastern to western regions,the narrowing of the regional technological gap,the improvement of transportation,and the weakness of local protectionism.According to the empirical results,this paper gives some recommendations for reducing China＇s energy intensity,including changing the performance evaluation of officials so as to narrow China＇s regional gap of energy intensity,promoting the formation of a unified nationwide mechanism for optimal allocation of energy and breaking the local protectionism of the energy field,improving infrastructure,as well as increasing scientific technological inputs.