多目标决策视角下中国适度人口规模预测

The Estimation of Optimum Population of China under Multiple Goals Restrain

对未来中国适度人口规模的基本判断是关系中国人口政策走向的根本问题，也是近年来各界关注的焦点之一。研究采用多目标决策技术中的“可能-满意度”方法（PS法），结合我国国民经济与社会发展远景目标，提取经济、资源环境、人口动态发展及与其他国家人口对比等四方面中的13个指标，首先对单个指标影响因素的可能-满意度曲线进行分析；其次设计由不同的指标并合而成的8种方案，以2050年为目标时间点，计算每种方案所对应的适度人口规模及人口结构，并分析对应的人71政策；最后对影响人口规模的关键因素进行分析和验证。研究结果表明，我国人口在2050年应当达到的适度目标规模的取值范围为14．8亿至15．4亿之间，此时，可能-满意度大于0．74，人们的生活质量达到一个较高水平，老年系数在0．226～0．236之间。

The Optimum Scale of China~ population is the basic problem that decides the adjustment of the policy of the population. The researeh abstracted 13 indexes from the fields of economie, resource, population development and comparing with other country, using possibility - satisfiability model, estimated the optimum scale and structure of population of 8 proposal with different index combination, and the key influencing factors to each proposal were analyzed after the target value till 2050 were given. The results showed that the optimum scale of poPulation was between 1.48 billion to 1.54 billion, and. at this level, the PS value was 0.74, the coefficient of aged population was between 0. 226 till 0.236.