人口老龄化机制研究:基于生育率持续下降视角

A Study on the Mechanism of Population Aging from the Perspective of Continually Declining Fertility

人口老龄化现象主要通过人口转变理论解释,由于生育率下降不满足经典的人口转变理论设想,人口转变理论对人口老龄化的解释力受到挑战。从制度的角度研究社会养老制度建立以后形成的"社会养老、家庭养子"对生育率的影响,以期解释人口转变结束后生育率持续下降的原因,从生育率下降视角研究人口老龄化机制。研究发现,在"社会养老、家庭养子"制度下,养子收益减少、养子成本提高、家庭养子资源比例减少,使家庭生育率下降,生育率下降导致人口老龄化程度加深;人口老龄化程度加深提高养子成本、降低家庭养子资源比例,由于家庭缺乏养子激励,生育率进一步下降,进而导致更严重的老龄化。老龄化一旦形成,具有不断强化的机制。

The phenomenon of aging is usually explained by the demographic transition theory, and this theory meets great challenge when declining fertility does not meet the classical theory of demographic transition. After giving the reasons why the fertility is declining continually at the end of demographic transition on the impact of the institution of ＂Society supports the elderly, family raises children＂ since the social pension system has being built, from the view of institution, this paper studies the mechanism of population aging by the perspective of continually declining fertility, and draws the conclusion that once aging is formed, it has a constant strengthening mechanisms. The mechanism of population aging as follows ： on the in- stitution of ＂Society supports the elderly, family raises children＂, decreasing in revenue, raising the cost of raising children and reducing the proportion of the family parenting resources, the family fertility decline, fertility decline lead to increased levels of population aging; degree of population aging for further enhancing the cost of raising children, reduce the proportion of parenting resources of households, because of family in the absence of fertility incentives, fertility rates decline further, which lead to more serious degree of aging. The conclusion is that once aging is formed, it has a constant strengthening mechanisms.