扩大东北地区内需的多区域一般均衡模型分析

Analysis of expanding northeast district inner requirement's multi district normal balance mode

扩大内需尤其是家庭消费,是我国经济增长方式转变的关键。本文运用多区域CGE模型,模拟了把部分政府储蓄转化为家庭消费的经济效果。我们发现:除东北以外的其他沿海地区之间家庭消费的关联紧密,而东北地区与内陆的关系相对紧密。东北与内地的家庭消费关系还表现为:东北对内地的影响并不是很大,但内地对东北的影响比较大。从以上研究结果可以推论出,要扩大东北地区的家庭消费,关键是要加强与内地的区域经济一体化建设。

Expanding domestic consumption,especially household consumption is the key point for China＇s transfer of their development style.In this paper,we use multi-regional CGE model to do the simulation of transfer some of government saving to household and to see their economic effects.We find the coast areas exclude northeast have relative close relationship and so between northeast and inland area.However,the relationship between northeast and inland are quite different.Because northeast do not have the significant influence to inland area as inland area to northeast area.Our conclusion is： for expanding household consumption of northeast area,we should pay more attention to construct the unified relationship between northeast and inland area.