应用普查法和捕获再捕获法对难于接触的女性性工作者开展规模估计研究

Study on estimating the size of sex workers with hard access by using census and capture-recapture methods in some areas of Kunming

目的探索在难于接触的女性性工作者中开展规模估计的简便可行的方法,为评价项目效果提供依据。方法固定人群采用普查法,流动人群采用捕获再捕获法。结果用普查法估计固定人群规模为445人（409~480人）,用捕获再捕获法估计流动人群规模为586人,95%CI：515~656人;18个调查点目标人群规模995~1 066人。结论根据规模估计的目的、目标人群类别及特征,结合现有资料和工作基础选择规模估计方法,简便可行。调查中,各利益相关群体积极参与和发挥作用至关重要。

Objective To explore a convenient and practical method for estimating the size of sex workers with hard access,so as to provide evidence for evaluating the effectiveness of interventions.Methods Census method was adopted for the fixed population while the capture-recapture method was used for the floating population.Results The estimated number of the fixed population by census method was 445（409-480）.The estimated number of the floating population by capture-recapture method was 586（95%CI：515-656）.The estimated number of target groups in the 18 survey points was 995-1,066 people.Conclusions The estimation of size of the target population selected according to its purpose,types and characteristics of the surveyed population and available information is valid and simple.During the survey,the active participation of different stakeholders is highly important.