应用回归法预测石家庄市斑疹伤寒发病

Predicting the incidence of typhus by regression analysis in Shijiazhuang City

目的预测石家庄市斑疹伤寒的流行趋势,为进一步制订防治对策提供科学依据。方法运用Excel软件对该地区2001-2009年的斑疹伤寒发病率进行二次多项式拟合,并根据所建立的预测方程对2010年的斑疹伤寒发病进行外推预测,分析其变化趋势。结果建立的石家庄市2001-2009年的斑疹伤寒发病预测模型为:y=0.428x2-5.9723x+21.524,相关指数R2=0.9576,模型拟合效果良好。结论石家庄市近年来的斑疹伤寒发病呈逐年下降趋势,但2008年以后略有回升,预计2010年的斑疹伤寒发病率为4.601/10万。

The aim of the present study was to predict the epidemic trends of typhus in Shijiazhuang, and provide scientific basis for making the further prevention and control measures of typhus. Using the Excel software, the secondary polynomial fitting was completed according to the incidence of typhus from 2001 to 2009, and extrapolation prediction was conducted based on the established equations of the incidence of typhus in 2010, and then the changing trends were analyzed. The established predictive model of the incidence of typhus was ＂y = 0. 428x^2 -5.972gx＋21. 524＂ , the correlation index R2 was 0.9576. The model fit well. There had a declining trend of the incidence of typhus in Shijiazhuang City in recent years. But since 2008, the incidence has become higher. The predictive incidence of typhus in 2010 of Shijiazhuang was 4. 601 per hundred thousands.