2010～2030年中国天然气发展战略探讨——中国发展低碳能源转型的关键是快速发展和高效利用天然气

Discussion of China＇s Natural Gas Development Strategy between 2010 and 2030---Rapid development and efficient application of natural gas hold the key to China＇s conversion towards low-carbon energy

文章论述了2010～2030年中国向低碳能源转型的关键是快速发展和高效利用天然气，指出“十二五”天然气发展规划中国产天然气增产幅度偏小，对外依存度增加过快。在深入剖析石油和天然气国际贸易价格与各国国内消费价格的差异和相互关系的基础上提出，近20年内中国实现低碳能源的初步转型必须以开发国产天然气为主，才能掌控国内天然气消费价格，实现市场拓展和资源开发的良性循环；把对外依存度控制在50％左右以保障供应安全。通过改革，按照市场机制构建天然气上中下游产业链和价格的宏观调控，这个目标是完全可以实现的。

The article elaborates that rapid development and efficient application of natural gas hold the key to China＇s conversion towards low-carbon energy between 2010 and 2030. It points out that China＇s natural gas production increases at a relatively slow rate during the 12TM Five-Year Plan Period but the country＇s dependency on natural gas export grows too quickly. Based on the in-depth analysis of the difference between the international trade prices of oil and natural gas and the domestic consumption prices of various countries as well as their correlations, the article comes up with the viewpoint that China＇s preliminary conversion towards low-carbon energy in the next two decades should be concentrated on development of domestic natural gas in order to control natural gas consumption price at home and bring market expansion and resource development under coordinated cycle. The dependency on imported gas should be controlled at about 30 percent to ensure the security of supply. This objective can be completely fulfilled through the reform efforts, such as establishing the natural gas upstream, middle-stream and downstream industrial chain and making macro adjustment of price according to the market mechanism.