中国基础设施投资的最优规模与最优次序——基于1996-2008年各省市地区面板数据分析

The Optimal Infrastructure Investment Scale and Order:Some Empirical Evidence from Panel Data in China

本文克服各项基础设施同时回归导致的多重共线性问题,基于基础设施的边际产出与最优规模分析框架,采用中国1996-2008年各省市地区面板数据实证研究发现:中国"电力、燃气和水的生产与供应业"、"交通运输、仓储和邮电通信业"、"水利、环境和公共设施管理业"等各项基础设施和"政府总投资"的边际产出分别为5.765、2.520、1.420和1.276;最优规模分别为4.66%、3.29%、5.02%和20.95%;各项基础设施的实际投资均低于最优规模。因此,为使政府投资收益最大化可按边际产出大小顺序优先次序投资;而根据各项基础设施投资的缺口和紧迫程度,则应按实际投资与最优规模差距由大到小顺序进行投资。

By overcoming multicollinearity problems,and using empirical evidence from Cross -Province panel data for 1996 -2008 in China,this paper utilizes an marginal output and optimal size framework on infrastructure and finds that： The marginal output of Electricity, gas and water production and supply, Transport, storage, posts and telecommunications, Irrigation works, environment and public facilities, and Government investment is 5. 765,2. 520,1. 420 and 1. 276, while optimal size is 4.66% ,3.29% ,5.02% and 20.95% respectively. And the actual investment on infrastructure is less than the optimal size. Therefore, in order to maximize the return we should invest infrastructure according to the order of marginal output. However, for infrastructure investment urgency, tbe investment order should be changed according to the gap between actual investment and optimal size.