国际货币竞争格局演进中的人民币国际化前景

The Outlook of RMB Internationalization with the Evolution of International Currency Competition

实证分析显示,未来20年国际货币竞争格局仍将保持基本稳定:国际储备领域维持美元第一、欧元第二、英镑第三,国际证券交易领域维持欧元第一、美元第二、英镑第三,最大的变化是人民币迅速崛起为第四大国际货币。这种演进态势与这一领域强大的惯性有关,但从根本上讲仍取决于影响国际货币占比的各种经济因素,比如国际经济、金融地位、汇率波动及实际利率等。我国国际金融地位低是制约人民币国际化进程的主要因素。因此,推进人民币国际化的关键在于进一步提高我国金融市场的广度、深度和开放度。

The empirical result shows that RMB becoming the fourth international currency will be the greatest change in the competitive pattern of international currencies in the next 20 years,while the overall pattern maintains stable： with the U.S.dollar ranking the first;Euro the second;sterling the third in the area of international reserve and Euro the first,U.S.dollar the second and sterling the third in international security transactions.The momentum of the trend comes from the inertia in this area.It still depends fundamentally on the economic factors affecting the share of major international currencies,such as the status in the world economy and finance,fluctuations of exchange rate and real interest rate,etc.The lower status of China in the world finance is the main factor restricting the process of RMB internationalization.Therefore,it＇s crucial to push forward the process to improve China＇s financial market in breadth;depth and openness.