中国中长期碳减排战略目标初探(Ⅲ)——石油能源产品在交通运输等行业中的应用和碳减排

A Preliminary Study on China′s Long and Medium-Term Strategic Goals for Reducing Carbon Emissions(Ⅲ)——The Application of Petroleum Products in Traffic and Transportation Sector and Carbon Emission Reduction

在我国中长期的终端能源需求中石油将占约15%的份额,其中55%～60%将被用于交通运输行业。逐步减少交通运输领域石油能源产品的使用量,对减少能源消费总量和二氧化碳排放量十分重要。目前国内外研究机构预测的中国2050年货运周转总量(8×104～9×104Gt.km)及公路货运周转量均明显偏高,造成预测的运输燃料消耗量太高,这也反映出调整中国经济产业结构和进出口贸易结构的紧迫性。减少私人乘用车的拥有量和出行量也是节能减排的关键,采用西方发达国家私人乘用车的比例,预测中国2050年将拥有5×108～6×108辆乘用车不符合中国人口众多、城市中心区人口密度的特点,将乘用车数量控制在3.0×108辆的水平比较恰当。目前全球运输领域二氧化碳排放量约占总排放量的20%～25%,中国运输领域的二氧化碳排放量将逐步上升,占总排放量的份额将从目前的7%提高到2050年的30%以上。应努力采取各种措施,使2050年乘用车的二氧化碳排放强度降低到40g/km的水平。除了减少化石能源石油产品使用量、使用生物质燃料、推广纯电动汽车和开发燃料电池汽车外,改变出行方式、发展方便快捷的公共交通显得十分重要。预计我国2050年燃料电池汽车将占到小汽车保有量的20%左右,纯电动汽车占30%左右,各种混合动力汽车将占50%左右。为了使中国2050年二氧化碳排放总量控制在40×108～50×108t的水平,有可能也有必要将石油的使用量控制在6.0×108t,交通运输领域石油能源产品使用量控制在4.0×108t以下。

Petroleum will account for about 15% of all end-user energy demand in the long and medium term in China and 55%-60% of the petroleum will be used in the traffic and transportation sector.Gradually reducing the use of petroleum products in the traffic and transportation sector is very important to reducing overall energy consumption and the emission of carbon dioxide.The current estimates by all domestic and foreign research institutes of China′s freight turnover in 2050（8×104-9×104Gt·km） and road freight turnover are considerably too high,leading to a prediction of very high consumption of transportation fuel.This has also highlighted the urgency of adjusting the economic and industrial structures as well as the foreign trade structure.Reducing the numbers of private passenger vehicles owned and put on road is also key to energy conservation and emission reduction.Based on the share of private passenger vehicles in developed countries,the prediction that China will have 5×108-6×108 passenger vehicles on road by 2050 does not conform to China′s characteristics of large population and highly populated downtown urban areas.It is appropriate to maintain the number of passenger vehicles in China at about 3.0×108.The global traffic and transportation sector currently accounts for around 20%-25% of the world＇s total carbon dioxide emissions.Carbon dioxide emissions by the Chinese traffic and transportation sector will rise gradually and the share of carbon dioxide emissions by this sector in China′s total carbon dioxide emissions will rise from the current 7% to more than 30% by 2050.Efforts should be made to reduce the carbon dioxide emission intensity of passenger vehicles to a level around 40g/km by 2050.In addition to reducing the use of fossil fuel and petroleum products,using biomass fuels,promoting the use of battery electric vehicles（BEV） and developing fuel cell vehicles,it is very important for people to change the way of traveling and for the nation to develop convenient public transportation system.It is predicted that by 2050 fuel cell vehicles will represent about 20% of all cars in China,BEVs will represent about 30% and hybrid vehicles will represent about 50%.To maintain the total amount of carbon dioxide emitted by China within the 40×108-50×108t range by 2050,it is necessary and also possible to maintain the country′s consumption of petroleum below 6.0×108t and the use of petroleum products in the traffic and transportation sector below 4.0×108t.