清中叶湖广私盐量化分析

Illegal Salt Quantitative Analysis in Hu and Guang in Mid-Qing

清中叶,湖广私盐异常活跃。名目繁多的私盐严重影响了官盐的销售,对湖广官盐市场造成了很大的冲击。那么,在湖广食盐市场,当时私盐到底占有多大的比重呢?目前有两种观点比较具有代表性,一种观点认为私盐占市场份额的三分之一;另一种观点为"官私之半"说。建立在大量文献资料基础上的量化分析表明,如果不分具体时间与地点,笼统地估算私盐市场份额,无论是"三分之一"还是"官私之半"之说,其实都是很不确切的。

Mid-Qing dynasty,Huguang illegal salt active.Salt smuggling serious impact on the numerous officials of salt sales,officials of the Huguang salt market caused great impact.Then,in the Huguang salt market,when the proportion of illegal salt in the end how much it holds？ There are two views are representative,a view that the market share of one third of the illegal salt;another point of view as ＂the semi-official and illegal salt＂ said.However,this writer in the access to an extensive literature on the basis of the information through a reasonable quantitative analysis found that if regardless of the specific time and place,a general estimate of salt smuggling market share,whether it is ＂third＂ or ＂the semi-official and illegal salt＂ in view,in fact,are very inaccurate.