城市化进程与公路交通建设关系分析

Study on Relationship between Urbanization Process and Highway Construction

基于翔实的数据,采用回归分析的方法研究了在社会发展过程中,城市化进程与公路交通建设的关系,导出了它们之间的线性相关模型,进一步从理论上证实了城市化水平与公路交通建设呈线性相关关系。采用Granger因果关系检验,得出在城市化前、中期,城市化水平与公路交通建设之间相互影响,互为因果,而在后期,城市化水平对于公路建设更有显著性的影响。最后根据模型,预测了我国十二五期间城市化与公路交通建设的发展。

Based on adequate data,the relationship between urbanization and highway construction during the development of society process has been analyzed through quantitative and qualitative analysis method in this paper.And their relationship can be derived as Z=kL+e from regression analysis,which proves that urbanization processes is in linear relationship in theory with highway construction level.Then Granger causality test is employed to analyze the interaction relationship between urbanization level and highway construction.Following the linear model,the development of urbanization and highway construction in Twelfth Five-year Stage (2011-2015)has been forecasted.