近57年安阳和南阳降水变化分析

Analysis on the Change of Precipitation in Anyang and Nanyang in Recent 57 Years

[目的]研究近57年安阳和南阳降水的变化特征。[方法]利用1953~2009年安阳和南阳的逐年降水量资料,采用数理统计、回归分析、小波分析等方法,对两市降水量的变化及其异同进行了分析。[结果]近57年来,安阳和南阳年降水量均呈下降趋势,安阳下降较明显;从季节变化来看,安阳春季和冬季平均降水量均呈上升趋势,南阳呈下降趋势,而两市夏季和秋季平均降水量均呈下降趋势;从周期变化来看,安阳降水量时间尺度为12~15年时,在1970年有一个突变点,而南阳降水量时间尺度为15年时,有两个突变点（1965和1997年）,时间尺度为7~10年时,突变点有4个（1968、1978、1987和1999年）。[结论]该研究为当地气候变化的预报提供了理论依据。

[Objective] The aim was to analyze the changes of precipitation in Anyang and Nanyang in recent 57 years.[Method] Based on the data of annual precipitation in Anyang and Nanyang from 1953 to 2009,the changes of precipitation in Anyang and Nanyang were compared by means of mathematical statistics,regression analysis and wavelet analysis.[Result] In recent 57 years,annual precipitation in Anyang and Nanyang showed decrease trend,especially Anyang;from seasonal variation,average precipitation in spring and winter went up in Anyang and went down in Nanyang,while average precipitation in summer and autumn reduced in two cities;from periodic variation,when time scale of precipitation in Anyang was 12-15 years,there was a catastrophe point in 1970,and Nanyang had two catastrophe points in 1965 and 1997 when time scale of precipitation was 15 years and 4 catastrophe points in 1968,1978,1987 and 1999 when time scale was 7-10 years.[Conclusion] The study could provide theoretical foundation for the forecast of local climatic change.