基于可变模糊组合方法的瓦斯涌出量预测

Gas emission rate forecast based on variable fuzzy combination method

矿井工作面瓦斯涌出是一个动态不确定过程。在分析了影响瓦斯涌出因素基础上,将可变模糊聚类与可变模糊模式识别两种模型相结合,提出了一种瓦斯涌出量预测的可变模糊组合方法。该方法首先利用粗糙集理论确定权重初值及各因素的重要性,然后利用可变模糊聚类模型求解最优模糊分类中心矩阵和最优权重,最后利用模式识别模型对待预测样本进行预测。以某矿井瓦斯涌出量预测为例,给出了具体预测过程。结果表明:可变模糊组合方法可行、有效。

Mine gas emission is a dynamic uncertain process.Base on the analysis of the impact factors of gas emission,the variable fuzzy cluster model and the variable fuzzy pattern recognition model are combined,a variable fuzzy combination method of forecast of gas emission rate is presented.In this method,used rough set theory to decide the initial weights and the importance of various factors,and used the variable fuzzy cluster model to solve optimal fuzzy classification center matrix and optimal weight,and finally used pattern recognition model to forecast the forecasting samples.Through the example of a mine gas emission forecast,a specific forecast process was given.The results showed that variable fuzzy Combination method is feasible and effective.