基于投入产出模型的灾害产业关联性损失计量

MEASURING DISASTER-RELATED LOSSES BASED ON INDUSTRY INPUT-OUTPUT MODEL

随着社会经济发展水平的提高,经济运行日益复杂化,各部门、各产业间关联形式更趋多样,关联程度也变得更高。灾害对于经济系统的影响也波及更多部门,灾害所带来的损失也由单一部门的损失变为多部门的经济损失。产业关联性损失的数量丝毫不比直接经济损失来得小。有关部门在测算直接受灾地区和直接受灾部门损失的时候,也应该将产业关联性损失较大的其他部门的损失考虑在内。基于投入产出模型对灾害导致的产业关联性经济损失进行了定量分析,为全面了解灾害造成的影响提供一种新的思路。

With the improvement of socio-economic development level, economic operation has become in- creasingly complicated and the associated forms between departments and industry have become diversified and the associated level is becoming higher. The impact of disasters on economic system has also spread to more sectors and the loss of a single sector brought about by disasters turn into the disaster of multisectoral economic losses. The quantity of industry-related losses is by no means smaller than direct economic losses. Therefore, when the sectors concerned focus their attention on the directly affected area and sectors, the considerable losses of other industrial sectors related should also be taken into account. This article conducts a quantitative analysis of the economic losses of the related industry caused by disasters based on input-output model for industry and points out a new way of thinking for comprehensively understanding the impact of disasters.