灰色模型在中长期用水量预测中的应用

The Application for Prediction of Mid and Long Term Water Demand

为实现供水管网经济、可靠、科学的规划改扩建,给出一种基于记录时间较短、历史数据较少的用水量序列的GM(1,1)预测方法。该预测方法把原始用水量序列累加处理生成新序列后,用指数关系式拟合,通过构造参数矩阵,确定辩识参数,建立灰色模型的微分方程。通过对灰色预测方法建模机理的研究建立城市用水量预测GM(1,1)模型,并以东北某大型城市用水量为原始数据进行实际预测,模型精度检验的结果表明该模型的预测等级为高精度预测。该预测方法应用于S市的中长期用水量预测,为S市供水规划改扩建提供有效依据。

To economically,reliably and scientifically implement modification and extension of water supply system,the GM（1,1） prediction method was presented based on water demand series of short record time and less historical data.After creating new series by accumulated generated the original water demand series,this forecasting method built a differential equation of gray model by fitting with exponential formula,constructing parameter matrix and ascertaining parameter identification.The GM（1,1） model is established and applied to a practical project in one huge city of North East for hourly water demands forecasting by checking up the precision,the model is proved to be feasible and effective.Application of this high –precision method to the long-term water demand and forecast of S city shows that it is an effective warranty for the city＇s water system planning.