中国棉花进口与纺织服装出口的关系研究——以美国贸易伙伴为例

A Study on the Relationship between China's Import of Cotton and Export of Textile and Apparel——Taking the Trade Partner of USA as an Example

针对ATC取消后美欧对中国纺织服装出口重新设限,与此同时,美国棉花又大量进入中国市场的现象,笔者通过建立VAR模型,运用脉冲响应函数等方法,分析了中国从美国进口棉花与向美国出口服装的关系。结果表明,大量美国棉花涌入中国市场,对ATC取消后中国服装出口的激增起着一定的作用。在解决中美纺织服装贸易摩擦时,我们要用好从美国进口棉花这个谈判筹码,促进中美间互惠贸易。

After the abolition of ATC, United States and Europe re -imposed restrictions on China＇ s exports of textile and garment. Meanwhile, China imported a large amount of cotton from America. In the light of the phenomenon, through constructing a VAR mod- el, the authors analyzed the relationship between China＇ s imports of cotton from the U.S. and exports of textile and apparel with im- pulse response function etc. The results show that large influx of cheap U. S. cotton played a role in the rapid increase in China~ appar- el exports after the abolition of the ATC. In solving the textile and apparel trade conflicts between China and America we should make good use of the cotton import from USA as a bargaining chip in order to promote Sino - U. S reciprocal trade.