“三驾马车”对国内经济拉动作用的再评估——基于针对加工贸易的非竞争型投入产出模型

Re-evaluating the Contribution of Three Components of GDP:Based on the Non-Competitive Input-Output Table for Manufacturing Trade

通过编制针对加工贸易的非竞争型投入产出表,测算了消费、投资和出口各自所诱发的国内增加值,以体现"三驾马车"对国内经济的拉动作用。测算结果表明:2002年至2007年,GDP总量对最终消费的依存度最高,但呈下降趋势,对出口的依存度最低,但呈上升趋势;出口对经济增长的贡献度最大,最终消费贡献度最小;最终消费和非加工出口对国内增加值的诱发系数在下降,而资本形成和加工出口的诱发系数在上升。

In order to show the pulling effect on the domestic economy of three components of GDP,this paper measures the domestic value-added induced by consumption,investment and export by constructing an extended non-competitive input-output table for processing trade.The results show that from 2002 to 2007,the dependence of GDP on consumption is the highest but goes down and the dependence on export is the lowest but goes up;the contribution to economic growth of export is the largest and the contribution of consumption is the smallest;the induced coefficient to domestic value-added of consumption and non-processing export is declining,while that of investment and processing export is increasing.