交强险的成本因素分析

Cost Analysis of Compulsory Automobile Liability Insurance in China

本文应用聚类分析方法和Beta回归模型对2009年度交强险审计报告所披露的交强险经营数据进行了分析。结果表明,交强险在31个地区的赔付率差异显著,主要影响因素包括人均收入水平、物价指数、人均交通支出和人均车辆数。交强险9个业务类别之间的赔付率差异也很明显,表明现行保费水平存在严重的不公平。各地区的赔付率和费用率之间存在反常的负向相关关系,反映了交强险在费用分摊中存在某种不合理现象。保险公司的经营费用率在不同地区和不同业务类别之间都没有显著差异,主要受保险公司业务规模的影响,规模经济效应显著。

Applying cluster analysis and Beta regression models,the paper analyzes the data published in 2009 auditing report of compulsory automobile liability insurance in China.We show that there are significant differences between loss ratios of 31 provinces,and these differences are mainly caused by income per capita,CPI,commuting expense per capita and auto numbers per capita.Loss ratios of nine classes of compulsory automobile liability insurance are also significantly different,and which indicates unfairness of current premium levels.The abnormal negative correlation between loss ratios and expense ratios of 31 provinces indicates existence of irregular expense allocation in compulsory automobile liability insurance.Companies＇ expense ratios of operating compulsory automobile liability insurance are mainly influenced by the volume of underwriting premium of the company and are not related with where they operate and what classes of compulsory automobile liability insurance they underwrite.