吐鲁番市建设用地需求量预测研究

Study on Turpan City's Land Demand for Construction Use

结合吐鲁番市新一轮土地利用总体规划修编实际,采用2001-2010年10a的建设用地数据,通过对研究区建设用地利用特征分析,建立了趋势预测模型、指数平滑模型和灰色系统GM(1,1)模型,分别对研究区建设用地需求量进行预测研究,并对3种模型预测结果进行比较分析,综合各模型的优缺点,最终预测出规划年期2015年和2020年的建设用地需求量,为吐鲁番市新一轮的土地利用总体规划修编工作提供技术支持和决策依据。

This paper takes the revision pilot practice of the new turn of land use planning of Turpan city,Using the selected ten years＇ construction land use data from 2001 to 2010 linked to the reality of Turpan city,through the analysis of the character of construction land use,and has constructed trend prediction model,quadratic exponential smoothing model and GM（1,1） model of construction land use demand,then studied and analyzed the results of prediction under these model.Finally,predict construction land use demand in the future 2015 and at a specified future date 2020 according to the adaptability of each model,and that might be a reference and support for the new turn revision of land use planning of Turpan.