QE2退出后利率与汇率可能的变化——美联储货币政策展望与影响

Possible Changes in Interest Rates and Exchange Rates with QE2 Exit

今年以来,影响债券市场的主要因素是通胀和流动性波动。在目前时点上,尽管上述变量仍有一定的不确定性,但是大致来看,出现超预期冲击的可能性较小。我们一直认为未来影响资本市场最大的不确定性主要来自外部,尤其是美国货币政策走向。

Inflation and liquidity fluctuation strongly impact bond market this year.Though uncertainties of them still exist, there is small chance of occurring unanticipated impact. Meanwhile,We should put more attention on external factor in the future,especially the trend of US monetary policy.