面向未来不确定性的城市历史街区保护和更新方法研究——以广州市上下九商业街区为例

Study on the Method of the Protection and Renewal of Historical Districts Based on the Future Uncertainty:Taking the Shangxiajiu Commercial District of Guangzhou as example

在快速城市化中,历史街区保护与更新往往以对立姿态并存。以未来视角来看,确定性决定了保护策略,而难以预知的不确定性使得更新缺乏科学依据,这正是造成当前历史街区改造在不断"试错"中仍然冲突不断。因此,如何有效应对未来不确定性成为调和保护和更新的有效路径。以历史街区发展的确定性因素来把握未来发展的不确定性,建立可调整的未来导控框架。以上下九商业街区为例,在理清历史街区结构的基础上,从充分挖掘街区的历史和现状资源出发,分别识别不同层级的驱动因子,并针对每个驱动因子的具体类型提出设计导则。最后,不同层次导则相互组合,来应对未来的不确定性。该研究为传统历史街区保护与更新提供新的研究思路,尤其为政府部门决策提供更为科学的依据,具有现实意义。

In the rapid urbanization,the protection of historical districts is always in confrontation with the renewal of them.From the view of future,the certainty decides the strategy of protection,and the uncertainty makes the action of renewal lacking scientific evidence.It causes that the conflicts keep occurring in the ＂trial and error＂ on the transform of historical districts.Thus,how to face the future uncertainty is the valid path of balance between protection and renewal.The research manages the uncertainty of the future development by the management of the certain factors of historical districts,and construct the future adjustable guidance framework.Taking the Shangxiajiu commercial district as an example,based on clarifying the structure of historical districts,and starting with dredging up the resources of the history and the present,this research identifies the driving factors of various hierarchies,and proposes the design guidance for the specific types of driving factors.Lastly,this research integrates the guidance of various hierarchies to answer to the future uncertainty.The study provides a new approach to the protection and renewal of historical districts and has the realistic meaning,especially for the decision-making sector.