三种模糊Markov链状预测模型

Three types of fuzzy Markov chain predication models

为了解决具有不确定信息的Markov链状预测问题,给出了"模糊状态-精确观测数据"、"精确状态-模糊观测数据"和"模糊状态-模糊观测数据"三类模糊Markov链状预测的模型,涵盖了具有不确定信息的Markov链状预测的各种形式,系统研究了三种模型下的状态转移概率确定方法与预测过程。该项工作使得模糊Markov链状预测模型问题趋于完善,为深入研究模糊Markov过程以及其它特殊的模糊随机过程提供了思路。

In order to solve Markov chain prediction problem with uncertain information, this paper presents three types of fuzzy Markov chain predication models including ＂fuzzy state - accurate observation data＂ model, ＂accurate status - fuzzy observation data＂ model and ＂fuzzy state - fuzzy observation data＂ model. They cover various forms of Markov chain predication with uncertain information. This study systematically investigates the method for determining the state transition probability and the prediction process under the proposed three models. This study greatly improves the fuzzy Markov chain forecasting models and provides a guideline for further in-depth study on fuzzy Markov process and other special fuzzy stochastic processes.