货币制度变迁机制研究——基于技术与政治共演的视角

Mechanism on Monetary System Changes from the Perspective of Coordination between Technology and Politics

借鉴制度变迁理论,找出货币制度中的两个博弈主体:统治者和平民;利用制度供给与制度需求的概念界定双方的支付水平;以政治权力结构作为博弈游戏规则,同时结合耗散结构理论构建出具备较强解释力的货币制度变迁理论。在此基础上,推论出导致一国货币制度变迁的内部和外部机制。结论是,除非具有经济实力的经济体的强势货币能够与美元相匹敌,否则美元仍会获得货币制度供给带来的超额收益,即继续贬值下去。作为外汇储备世界第一的中国,唯一合理的选择是实施资源优先战略,即利用手中外汇购买他国重要的资源,如能源和矿产。

According to theory of system change,this paper finds two subjects of the game in monetary system： ruler and civilian,defines the level of payment of the two parties based on system supply and system demand,constructs monetary theory of system change with strong interpretation based on game theory of political power structure and theory of dissipative structure,from which the author deduces the internal and external mechanism of monetary system changes in one country.In summary,unless there is hard currency well matched with US dollar in an economy with economic strength,the US dollar will still make excess profits from money system supply,viz.continuous depreciation.As the top country of foreign exchange reserves,the only rational option for China is to take the strategy of resource priority,that is,to use the foreign exchange in hand to buy key resources from other countries,such as energy and minerals.