基于MC模拟的物流园区建设项目投资风险评价

Analysis and Evaluation of Investment Risk for Logistic Park Construction Project Based on the Monte Carlo Simulation

现代物流园区建设项目规模越来越大、投资额越来越高,文中阐述了在不确定性分析基础上,对物流园区建设项目进行蒙特卡洛(MC)模拟的风险评价流程。结合物流园区建设项目的特点,分析识别了其投资风险构成,给出了以现金流量表中的各风险变量为风险源,对项目净现值、内部收益率、投资回收期等指标进行模拟分析的风险评价体系,并通过具体实例对物流园区建设项目投资风险进行了评价。

This paper elaborated in the uncertainty analysis foundation,carries on the risk assessment flow which to the construction project of logistics park Monte-Carlo（MC） simulates.The union construction project of logistics park＇s characteristic,the analysis has distinguished its investment risk constitution,has given take the cash flow indicator＇s in various risks variable as the risk source,is presently worth,internal targets and so on returns ratio,investment recoupment period to the project to carry on the simulation analysis only the risk assessment system,and has carried on the appraisal through the concrete example to the investment risk of construction project of logistics park.