人工干扰下重大传染病扩散演化的仿真研究——以非典为例

System Dynamics of Simulation of Spread of Major Infectious Disease——A Case Study on SARS

重大传染病发生后若应对不当,往往会借助自然系统或社会系统之间相互依存和相互制约的关系迅速扩散演化,产生一系列次生衍生事件。以重大传染病的发生和发展过程为基础构建其扩散模型,利用系统动力学仿真软件比较不同防控情形下系统演化结果,结果表明:(1)通过对疾病接触系数、自由传播期、开始防控时间进行控制可以改变重大传染病的扩散演化;(2)单独限制人口流动虽可降低传染速率但无法抑制重大传染病的扩散,而同时采取限制人口流动和隔离措施的效果优于单独采取隔离措施。

With the interrelated restriction and interaction of natural system or social system, a series of secondary events will derive from major infectious disease if appropriate responses are not made. According to the process of major infectious disease, the diffusion model of the major infectious disease was established, and the results under different prevention and control measures were compared. The results show that ： （ 1 ） Diffusion evolution of major infectious disease can be affected by changing the value of the Nfc, Tfree, and Time, （2） Although value of variable Rg can be reduced, diffusion of major infectious disease can not be controlled effectively by only limiting population flow. Therefore, limiting the flow of population and isolating the affected simultaneously is better than the act of isolation only.