东北地区农业气象灾害定量评估

Quantitative evaluation on agrometeorological disasters in Northeast China

利用1971—2008年东北地区农业生产资料及主要农业气象灾害资料,计算了干旱、洪涝、风雹和低温冷害的影响权重、成灾率及其变异值。在此基础上,分析了4类灾害对农业生产的影响程度,并进行了综合评估。结果表明:东北地区干旱影响权重最大,并呈增加趋势;黑龙江省各种灾害权重均大于吉林省、辽宁省;东北地区气象灾害以小灾和轻灾为主,但气象灾害对农业生产危害程度越来越严重,特别是2000年以来,重大灾害的发生频率明显升高。

Based on grain production statistic data and agrometeorological disasters data from 1971 to 2008 in Northeast China,the weight and the affecting rates as well as variation values of the main agrometeorological disasters including drought,flood,wind and hailstone damage,and cool and frost injury were calculated.Then the influence of the above disasters on agricultural production was analyzed and evaluated.The results indicate that the weight of drought disaster is the largest in Northeast China and is in an increasing trend.The weights of various disasters are all larger in Heilongjiang province than in Liaoning and Jilin provinces.The grades of agrometeorological disasters are usually light disasters and small disaster in Northeast China,whereas the harm of agrometeorological disasters on agricultural production is more and more serious.The frequency of severe disaster increases obviously since 2000.