1960—2009年汉中市气候变化特征及未来趋势

Characteristics of climatic change from 1960 to 2009 and its future trend in Hanzhong,Shaanxi province

运用一元回归分析、Mann-Kendall和R/S方法,对1960—2009年汉中市气温、降水量和日照时数变化特征及未来趋势进行分析。结果表明:近50 a来,汉中市年平均气温以0.14℃/10 a的速率升高,并在1997年发生增温突变,其Hurst值为0.94,表明未来气温的变化与过去50 a有较强的持续性,仍将呈现上升趋势。汉中市年降水量以-28.45 mm/10 a的速率显著减少,呈波动变化,突变不显著,其Hurst值为0.75,说明汉中市降水量减少的趋势还将继续;日照时数在过去50 a呈减少趋势,减少率为-56.42 h/10 a,并在1979—1980年发生突变,其Hurst值为0.91,说明汉中市未来日照时数变化趋势与过去一致,仍将持续减少。

Using methods of a linear regression analysis,a Mann-Kendall test and a rescaled range analysis（R/S）,the characteristics of air temperature,precipitation and sunshine duration from 1960 to 2009 and their future trends in Hanzhong were analyzed.The results show that the mean annual temperature increases with 0.14℃ per decade in the recent 50 years,and an abrupt change occurs in 1997.Hurst index of the annual mean temperature reaches 0.94,and it suggests that the future air temperature change is also in an increasing trend.Precipitation decreases with-28.45 mm per decade and fluctuates,while an abrupt change is not significant.Hurst index of precipitation is 0.75,and it suggests that the future precipitation would decrease successively.Annual sunshine duration decreases in the past 50 years with-56.42 hours per decade,and an abrupt change appears during 1979-1980.Hurst index of sunshine duration is 0.91,and it suggests that the future annual sunshine duration would decreases successively.