漳河水库流域降雨序列变异点分析

Analysis of Sequence Variation Point of Rainfall in Zhanghe Reservoir Basin

依据漳河水库流域1963-2008年降雨资料,采用Mann-Kendall参数秩次相关检验法对其未来变化趋势和变异点进行了分析,结果表明:(1)在显著性水平α=0.05下,漳河水库流域年降雨量总体上呈缓慢下降的变化趋势;(2)降雨量的显著变化点在1995年,以1995年为分界线,前后两个系列的水文统计特征值具有明显差异,已经不符合"一致性"的要求;(3)流域地区1月和7月的降雨量变化趋势的随机性成份很大,应采取相应对策和措施,以应对未来可能出现的干旱或暴雨洪涝等自然灾害;(4)流域人类活动日趋频繁,使得流域下垫面条件发生了较大的变化。

On the basis of annual rainfall from 1963 to 2008 in Zhanghe Reservoir basin and its variation tendency,as well as variation point is analysed by using Mann-Kendall parameter related inspection.The result shows that the annual rainfall generally has a slow decline whenα=0.5; the significant change point is in 1995 as a dividing line and eigenvalues of the two series of hydrological statistics have obvious differences;rainfall variation in January and July has great randomness, so countermeasures should be taken to prevent such natural disasters as drought and flood; and more frequent human activities have resulted in great changes in underlaying surface conditions.