陕西省产业结构、消费结构与经济增长的VAR模型分析

VAR Model Analysis of Industrial Structure,Consumption Structure and Economic Growth of Shaanxi Province

文章基于VAR模型建立协整方程,并运用脉冲响应函数和方差分解方法,对陕西省1978—2008年产业结构、消费结构的调整与经济增长的关系进行了研究。结果表明:产业结构、消费结构与经济增长间存在长期的协整关系;产业结构与消费结构变动对经济增长均有促进作用;消费结构对经济增长的贡献以短期波动为主,长期则主要由产业结构决定。

Co-integration tests,impulse response function and variance decomposition are used in the paper to demonstrate the relationship between industrial structure,consumption structure and Shaanxi＇s economic growth from 1978 to 2008 based on VAR model.The results show that：existing a long-term co-integration relationship among industrial structure,consumption structure and economic growth;consumption structure＇s contribution to economic growth is mainly reflected in short-term and long-term economic growth mainly depend on the changes of industrial structure.