城市燃气短期负荷预测中的气温累积效应

Problem of Air Temperature Accumulative Effect in City Gas Short Term Load Forecast

气温累积效应的存在影响了城市燃气短期负荷预测的准确性。针对这一问题,分析了气温累积效应强度的影响因素及其特点;引入了气温累计效应系数,提出了解决气温累积效应的具体方法。计算表明,考虑气温累积效应可显著提高预测的准确度。

Air temperature accumulative effect will influence the accuracy for forecasting city gas short term load to certain extent.According to analysis on factors influencing strength of air temperature accumulative effect and its influencing characteristics,the concept of air temperature accumulative effect factors is introduced to discuss the specific measures which can minimize air temperature accumulative effect.The results show that the factor of air temperature accumulative effect should be considered in city gas short term load forecast to improve accuracy of the forecast results greatly.