上海港集装箱货运量预测及拼箱作业节点建议

Prediction of Shanghai Port Container Freight and Recommendations of Lcl Operation Point

首先,分析了上海港港口集疏运现状,并采用灰色预测模型对上海港口未来年集装箱货运量进行预测;其次,结合上海港历年的进出口集装箱比例及上海港总体规划,预测未来年进出口集装箱量比例及未来年外高桥港区和洋山港的集装箱分担比;再次,针对未来年产生的集装箱货运需求,着重分析未来年集装箱货运对上海疏港道路(主要为北部过江隧道、东海大桥)的交通影响;最后,借鉴日本成田机场原木物流园区的货运组织方式,提出在沪宁和沪杭方向分别设置一个货运集散点,作为集装箱拆拼箱作业区的建议。

The current situation of gathering and distributing transportation in Shanghai port is analyzed and the future freight volume of containers of Shanghai port is forecasted by using grey prediction model.Secondly,according to the import and export container ratio in past years and the general planning of Shanghai port,the import and export container ratio and the share ratio for Yangshan port and other ports container in future years are predicted.Thirdly,aiming at the freight traffic demand of container in future years,the influence is emphatically analyzed,of container freight traffic on the port corridor,mainly on northern cross-river tunnels and DongHai Bridge.Finally,Based on the experience in freight organization of Japan narita logs logistics park,the suggestion that set up freight hubs in the direction of shanghai-Nanjing and Shanghai-Hangzhou direction respectively,is put forward as the operation place for LCL container.