山东海洋经济发展的前瞻与对策

Marine economic forecast and suggestions of Shandong

本文首先采用层次分析法,建立海洋经济发展预测的指标体系,计算出山东海洋经济发展综合指标,对海洋经济发展进行趋势预测与分析,为山东半岛蓝色经济区的建设提供重要参考。最后利用灰色预测模型得出2015年和2020年山东省海洋产业总产值分别为10390亿元和14166亿元,而随着蓝色经济区战略的全面开展和海洋资源开发技术的提高,海洋经济发展效率必将不断提高,因此,在未来山东海洋经济的发展过程中,其产值高于上述预测值也是完全可能的。

An analytic hierarchy process （AHP） approach is described and applied to the development of Shandong Marine economic. The index system is built to analyze the present status and development tendency of Shandong Marine economic, and suggestions are made for the bluc economic zone of Shandong peninsula. Then use the grey forecasting model to figure out that the marine gross output value of Shandong in 2015 and 2020, which arc 1,039 billion and 1,417billion Yuan RMB. But the actual marine gross output value maybe higher because of the construction of blue economic zone.