基于面板数据模型的中国农业生产用能与农业经济增长关系

Relationship between agricultural energy consumption and economic growth based on panel data model in China

为揭示不同区域农业生产用能与农业经济增长的差异,该文以中国东中西地区为研究对象,利用1990～2008年农业生产用能与农业产值数据构筑面板数据模型进行分析。结果表明,各地区农业生产用能与农业产出增长均存在格兰杰因果关系,随着地区发达程度的降低,这种关系越发明显;同时,西部地区农业生产用能与农业产出增长还存在双向长期格兰杰因果关系。通过模型分析,进一步定量揭示了各地区间农业生产用能与农业产出增长之间关系的差异,以及地区内部各省份之间也存在差异;详述了区域经济发展水平与农业经济增长关系的密切程度,以及继续增加农业投入与农业经济持续增长出现差异的原因。最后指出,在农业现代化普及地区,重点是提高农业物资利用效率和使用合理的种植结构,而在农业现代化中等及欠发达地区,应注重农业物资投入及效率提高。

It is of great practical significance to reveal the differences of agricultural energy consumption and economic growth in regions of China.By taking three regions in China as the research object,the paper built the panel data model to analyze the relationship between agricultural energy consumption and economic growth based on the panel data of 30 provinces from 1990 to 2008.The results showed that Granger causality existed in each region and made different changes along with the level of economic development.Meanwhile,the bidirectional and long-term Granger causality existed in western region.The differences of the relationship between agricultural energy consumption and economic growth were revealed quantitatively by model analysis for three regions of China and also for provinces of each region.The close degree of the relationship between agricultural energy consumption and economic growth was analyzed in detail,and the difference in agricultural output of different regions caused by increasing energy input was also take into account.Finally,some suggestions were put forward in the paper which can provide references for study of sustainable development of agricultural economy and energy policy making in different regions of China.