基于GIS和RS的松花江干流哈尔滨段淹没经济损失预测

Prediction of Songhua River flood economic losses in Harbin based on GIS and RS

利用地理信息系统预测洪水造成的经济损失,可以为防洪规划提供重要的依据。本文基于地理信息系统GIS技术构建数字高程模型,采用平面模拟方法模拟了松花江水位达到120.89m时哈尔滨市各区的淹没范围,运用地理信息系统GIS与遥感RS技术相结合的方法获取了哈尔滨市区土地利用现状空间分布信息,并用其将社会经济信息进行空间展布,对淹没区的农业、工业、第三产业、农村住宅与家财和城镇住宅与家财进行了直接经济损失和间接经济损失的预测。结果表明:当松花江水位达到120.89m时,淹没范围涉及哈尔滨市的松北区、呼兰区、道外区、道里区和香坊区,淹没面积达到1402km2,总经济损失为68.2亿元。淹没面积、淹没造成的总经济损失最大的是松北区,松北区也是农业、工业、第三产业和农村住宅与家财损失最严重的区域。城镇住宅与家财损失最严重的是道里区和道外区,这2个区也是单位面积经济损失率较高的区域,是哈尔滨市防洪工作的重点。呼兰区和松北区是单位面积经济损失率最低的区域,可以考虑作为泄洪区。松北区、呼兰区和道外区的部分工业用地,以及道里区、道外区和香坊区的部分城镇住宅用地的空间布局不合理。

Prediction of inundation loss can provide important reference for flood control planning.Base on GIS,the digital elevation model was built,and the the submerged area of Harbin city was simulated under condition that the water level of Songhua River reached to 120.89 m by plane simulation method.The spatial information of urban land use and the spatial distribution of the socio-economic information in Harbin city were acquired by combining GIS with RS technology,and the direct and indirect economic losses were forecasted on agriculture,industry,tertiary industry,rural and urban housing and family wealth in the submerged area.The results showed that when the water level of Songhua River reached 120.89 m,the submerged area which including the Songbei area,Hulan area,Daowai area,Daoli area,Xiangfang area in Harbin would be 1 402 km2,and the total economic loss was 6.82 billion Yuan.Songbei was the most severe submerged area with biggest total economic loss especially on agriculture,industry,tertiary industry and rural residential family wealth.Daoli area and Daowai area had the most severe loss area with urban housing and family wealth,and their economic loss rate per unit area was also higher,so they were the focus of Harbin city for flood control.Hulan area and the Songbei area had the lowest rate of economic loss per unit area,so it could be considered as flood zoon.Spatial layout of parts of industrial land in Songbei area,Hulan area and Daowai area and parts of urban residential land in Daowai area,Daoli area and Xiangfang area was unreasonable.