自组织临界性与大停电事故预测

Self-organized criticality and power system blackouts prediction

围绕当前电力系统自组织临界性(SOC)模型及大停电事故幂律关系的研究,从物理学的角度讨论了SOC的理论意义,说明了SOC模型为停电事故危险性分析中使用过去的有限资料来预测未来事故的方法提供了较为合理的理论依据。论述了电力系统SOC模型的着眼点,并不是某一次大停电事故,而是由很多停电事故构成的事故群体;电力系统SOC模型的重点,是试图说明事故群体的普遍性规律,并不是要阐明某一个具体大停电事故的规律。尽管SOC是一个简单的模型,但它不仅在提醒人们从物理学角度思考停电事故预测的可能性方面,还是在揭示简单的物理模型对于理解复杂停电事故现象的价值方面,都有着重要的作用。

Based on the study of power system self-organized criticality （SOC） model and the power-law of the power system blackouts, the theoretical meaning of SOC is discussed from the physics standpoint. The SOC model provides reasonable theroritical basis to future accidents prediction by using limited history data in power system blackout risk analysis. The focus of power system SOC model is not a certain blackout, but accident group consists of many blackouts. The key point of power system SOC model is trying to explain the universal rules of accident group, not clarifying the ride of a specific blackout. Although SOC is a simple model, it plays an important role in not only reminding the possibility of the blackouts prediction from the physics standpoint, but also revealing the value of understanding the complex blackouts phenomenon through simple physic model.