公司资本投资决策中管理者非理性行为及其原因研究

Research on Irrational Behavior of Managers and Its Reasons in the Process of Corporate Capital Investment Decision-making

本文首先基于对实际决策行为的调研和文献研究,归纳出公司资本投资决策中管理者经常出现的12种非理性行为,并按资本投资决策的逻辑步骤将其分成3类;然后,针对每一种行为,根据访谈和行为决策理论,提出"产生这些行为的原因"假设;通过问卷调查和统计分析,发现被检验的38个假设中,有36个假设得到支持;最后,对36个假设的内容进行综合分析,得出每一种非理性行为产生的具体原因,揭示出行为背后的不确定因素、认知偏差和心理因素及其相互作用的思维框架,为改进公司资本投资决策方法与防范管理者非理性行为提供依据。

First, based on investigation of the actual decision -making behavior and literature research, this paper gener- alizes twelve types of irrational behaviors which frequently appear in the process of capital investment decision - making for man- agers, and then classifies these behaviors into three types according to the logical steps of corporate capital investment; Then, for every kind of behavior, this paper puts forward the propose about why these behaviors happen on the basis of interviews and behavioral decision making theory. Through the questionnaire and statistics analysis, we found that there are thirty - six propo- ses supported in the thirty - eight which are tested. At last, makes comprehensive analysis on the specific content of the thir- ty -six proposes, and gets the specific reason of each irrational behavior, reveals the uncertain factors, cognitive biases and psychological factors, and also the three interaction of thinking framework behind the behavior, all of these provide the basis for improving the method of eomoanv capital investment decision - making to reduce the managers irrational behavior