后金融危机的货币供给过剩及其效应

Monetary Supply Excess and Its Effects to Inflation and Economic Growth after the Financial Crisis

本文针对我国货币政策的操作特征,使用阈值协整方法扩展现有的货币需求模型,度量后金融危机时期的货币供给过剩及其对通胀与经济增长的非线性调节效应,并进而设定广义脉冲响应函数揭示货币供给过剩对通胀与经济增长的冲击效应。主要结论为:2009年第三季度以后,我国货币供给过剩且过剩幅度快速增加,其中名义M1过剩12.56%,名义M2过剩11.31%。2009Q3—2010Q3我国处于货币供给过剩机制下,在该机制下,央行谨慎地实施从紧货币政策,从紧货币政策对通胀和经济增长的调节效应相对较强。货币供给过剩对通胀和经济增长的冲击在前2年为正值,在随后近3年为负值。这说明我国现阶段适度宽松货币政策的退出必须谨慎,退出速度不宜过快。

To measure the monetary supply excess and its nonlinear adjustment effects to inflation and economic growth, this paper expands the existing model of money demand using threshold cointegration on the base of operating characteristics of monetary policy. Furthermore, aiming at the conditions of money supply excess, this paper reveals the shock effects of money supply excess to inflation and economic growth by setting generalized impulse response function. The results show that there is liquidity excess in China after 2009Q3 and the liquidity excess extent becomes bigger and bigger. At 2010Q3, the exless degree of Mt and M2 is 12. 56% and 11.31% respectivdy. The monetary police can be divided into monetary supply insufficient regime and monetary supply excess regime. China is in the monetary supply excess regime from 2009Q3 to 2010Q3. The central bank carefully implements tightening monetary policy and the adjustment effects of monetary police are bigger in monetary supply excess regime. The shock effect of monetary supply excess to economic growth and inflation is positive in the first two years about, and turns to negative in following 3 years about. Those results indicate that the loose monetary policy should withdraw from practice, but the withdraw speed should not be too fast and the operation of monetary policy should be flexible.