中国制造业贸易成本的测度

Measuring the Trade Cost of Chinese Manufacturing Industries

传统贸易成本的估计采用缺乏微观基础且基于对称性假设的理论模型,本文利用克服以上缺点的模型,估计了中国与主要贸易伙伴之间制造业各产业的贸易成本,结果显示:1997—2007年,中国与主要贸易伙伴的贸易成本在制造业各产业上都表现出不同程度的逐年下降趋势,在制造业所有的产业中,高技术型制成品贸易成本最低,下降幅度最大。在主要贸易伙伴中,中国与日本、韩国的贸易成本低于欧美国家。中国与欧美等发达国家之间存在较大的技术"鸿沟",高技术产业仍处于国际产品内分工的低端环节。因此,国家亟待调整和出台国际贸易及相关支持政策,引导、促进中国制造业在国际产业价值链中加快升级,减少贸易成本。

The traditional model of measuring trade cost is short of micro-founded theory and based on symmetry assumptions, this paper measures manufacturing industries＇ trade cost between China and principal trade partners by a model which could overcome these shortcomings. The results show that, the manufacturing industries＇ trade cost appears declining trend between China and principal trade partners from 1997 to 2007. The high technology manufactured goods＇ trade cost is the lowest, and its decreased magnitude is the largest. Furthermore, China＇s trade cost for Japan and Korea is higher than Europe and the United States. There is a great technology gap between China and European and American countries. Chinese high technology manufactured goods are at the low position in the international specialization. Therefore, our country should issue and adjust international trade and related supporting policies immediately, thus promoting Chinese manufacturing industry upgrading in the international industrial value-chain and decreasing trade costs.